Dead or alive....
It doesn't make a difference anymore.
The dictator has become totally irrelevant when the country is slipping towards the release 2.0 of the tyranny.
He's as good as dead, even if he is not clinically dead yet.
The enormous ego of fidel castro is the only thing preventing him from dying phisically.
The cult of personality -at times denied- was so huge that killing the myth has proven to be a daunting task for raul, but we have to say that the relief of the effigy of fidel on the podium where raul spoke on July 26th, was a good signal for all of us to understand that the days of fidel are a thing of the past. It's over.
We got information this morning that as per yesterday castro was still alive but in bad shape, cannot be killed yet, though.
There are a few things to be squared off before the plug is pulled for once and all.
The recognition of the American government is the most important one.
The recognition of the American candidates in the presidential race, actually, because they know that it's unlikely that Bush will openly cooperate with them, even though they have had a great ally in him regarding the dry foot wet foot and the limbo in Guantanamo Base.
Another one is the economic model to be adopted. For that they need a few helping pushes, and some agreements, but almost everything is in place.
Then is the maintaining of "estability" in Cuba.
We already know that there's a compromise of no-intervention by the part of the American military, unless things get really ugly and out of control. That's the part the Cuban military and the Cuban secret police are taking care of.
Raul's working in establishing "good will" gestures, albeit false. The Cuban people is not reacting well, they are highly suspicious of those "opening gambits" by the raul regime, and they are just going by the old Spanish saying: "vale mas malo conocido que bueno por conocer" (meaning, they know all the tricks in the old tyrant's bag, they are weary of the new and unknown tricks in the new tyrant's bag)
We have said many times that the process of succession has been established according to the Soviet liturgy and that it's apparently going on without any major glitch. The measures against a popular uprising -very unlikely at this point- has a counterpart in the United States with all the measures designed to prevent Cuban Americans from having a participation on whatever happens in Cuba in the days following the announcement, thus all those emergency plans of the military, the Navy and the Coast Guard in South Florida: for the first time in history the USA is blocking it's own maritime borders to its own citizens so they can go to another country freely. That's the stabilization part needed to be accomplished by the USA.
This Friday's rumors didn't launch a people to the sea in go-fast boats in Miami. They were maybe waiting for the Cuban government announcement of the death of Castro. Strangely, nobody took the sea and decided to wait on the announcement at a short reach of the Cuban shores. It gave a good glimpse on the pulse of the community to the authorities, if you know what I mean.
It also gave the Cuban government another piece of intelligence:
"Don't launch a rumor before the announcement"
We stand on what our sources have conveyed to us, the announcement will come as a surprise, during a weekday.
It will catch everybody moved, both in Cuba and in the United States.
We also have information that the United States government will be privvy to the information simultaneously, and that it will be not be conveyed throught the American Interest Section. They will know, though, that something's coming when the dissidents get corraled. But still we should not underestimate the enemy.... maybe they won't resource to a massive bagging of dissidents so there won't be a give away.
Dead or alive, who cares.
It would have made a big difference if raul had died before.....
The dictator has become totally irrelevant when the country is slipping towards the release 2.0 of the tyranny.
He's as good as dead, even if he is not clinically dead yet.
The enormous ego of fidel castro is the only thing preventing him from dying phisically.
The cult of personality -at times denied- was so huge that killing the myth has proven to be a daunting task for raul, but we have to say that the relief of the effigy of fidel on the podium where raul spoke on July 26th, was a good signal for all of us to understand that the days of fidel are a thing of the past. It's over.
We got information this morning that as per yesterday castro was still alive but in bad shape, cannot be killed yet, though.
There are a few things to be squared off before the plug is pulled for once and all.
The recognition of the American government is the most important one.
The recognition of the American candidates in the presidential race, actually, because they know that it's unlikely that Bush will openly cooperate with them, even though they have had a great ally in him regarding the dry foot wet foot and the limbo in Guantanamo Base.
Another one is the economic model to be adopted. For that they need a few helping pushes, and some agreements, but almost everything is in place.
Then is the maintaining of "estability" in Cuba.
We already know that there's a compromise of no-intervention by the part of the American military, unless things get really ugly and out of control. That's the part the Cuban military and the Cuban secret police are taking care of.
Raul's working in establishing "good will" gestures, albeit false. The Cuban people is not reacting well, they are highly suspicious of those "opening gambits" by the raul regime, and they are just going by the old Spanish saying: "vale mas malo conocido que bueno por conocer" (meaning, they know all the tricks in the old tyrant's bag, they are weary of the new and unknown tricks in the new tyrant's bag)
We have said many times that the process of succession has been established according to the Soviet liturgy and that it's apparently going on without any major glitch. The measures against a popular uprising -very unlikely at this point- has a counterpart in the United States with all the measures designed to prevent Cuban Americans from having a participation on whatever happens in Cuba in the days following the announcement, thus all those emergency plans of the military, the Navy and the Coast Guard in South Florida: for the first time in history the USA is blocking it's own maritime borders to its own citizens so they can go to another country freely. That's the stabilization part needed to be accomplished by the USA.
This Friday's rumors didn't launch a people to the sea in go-fast boats in Miami. They were maybe waiting for the Cuban government announcement of the death of Castro. Strangely, nobody took the sea and decided to wait on the announcement at a short reach of the Cuban shores. It gave a good glimpse on the pulse of the community to the authorities, if you know what I mean.
It also gave the Cuban government another piece of intelligence:
"Don't launch a rumor before the announcement"
We stand on what our sources have conveyed to us, the announcement will come as a surprise, during a weekday.
It will catch everybody moved, both in Cuba and in the United States.
We also have information that the United States government will be privvy to the information simultaneously, and that it will be not be conveyed throught the American Interest Section. They will know, though, that something's coming when the dissidents get corraled. But still we should not underestimate the enemy.... maybe they won't resource to a massive bagging of dissidents so there won't be a give away.
Dead or alive, who cares.
It would have made a big difference if raul had died before.....
5 Comments:
Dead or alive wont mean a thing for Cuba? another 48 years of hell?
please guys say it aint so
Vana, if only one man was the culprit of almost half a century of suffering and all this curse disappeared with his death it would talk really badly about us.... I mean, all it took was only one man to subjugate 12 million people? It was (it is) his evil system what crushed Cuba. It would be unrealistic to think that an organized police state, a system of fear and death will disappear quickly because castro dies. No. It's better to be realistic, raul castro is there. His (their) henchmen are there. The system is there, working without him for a year already. We cannot confuse kasstro with the tyranny, the tyranny is a vast system put together by men of evil, all of them disciples from the old school soviet empire. The battle starts now, whenevere the annonuncement is made. And kasstro's death is no victory, because he will die unpunished.
Yes Charlie, it was his evil system that crushed Cuba, but even recently on that video we watched, people keep saying, if only fidel knew of these things, he would change them, I have always believed to a certain degree that Cubans are fidelistas, not comunistas, and that maybe, just maybe his death may change the people's view, as I said before, it's all a waiting game, a damn waiting game, and I lose hope every day
Guys, IMHO....based on all the 'chatter' I see...
1. Castro is currently (depending on your views), at best > in some irreversible medical 'life-support' status, and at worst> already in the 'freezer'.
2. The Castro Mafia is now getting ready (at the upper level) to initiate a complete and total major CRACKDOWN of 'known' and 'potential'..."counter-revolutionaries".
(i.e. dissidents and their supporters). They have the 'name lists' ready to be put to the lower levels for 'action'.
3. CASTRO MAFIA's real fears are not with this group (although they view them as potential 'agitators' or 'catalysts' to the disgruntled masses at-large)
4. CASTRO MAFIA's real fears are with the 'disgruntled under-current' of the masses, which if ignited, could get 'out of control' and require BLOODSHED which could bring in the USA to act, or cause the "MIAMI MAFIA" to urge USA action, or more fearfully, cause an INTERNAL BREAK IN THE REGIME.
My prediction....
1. CASTRO MAFIA will announce CASTRO death within the next 45 days.
2. USA INTELLIGENCE will know before USA public. Federal and state agency heads will be informed and will be put on an 'alert' status pending CUBA confirmation.
3. CASTRO MAFIA will 'mobilize' all available 'tyranny resources' (military, G-2, police, CDC, Brigadas, and all registered "chivatos") for an 'indefinite duration' - call it "Campaign for the Defense of the Revolution" - to act against any counter-revolutionary or subversive activities.
The real test will come in the next 12 months AFTER the tyrant is buried.
=====
Sadly, we will not have any white knights of 'liberation' coming down from the Sierra Maestra, or stealthly landing in Playa Giron, or fighting out out of the Escambray.
As to the old saying that "anything is possible", sadly, our exile community (after 1961) never 'united' again in developing a winnable strategy in toppling this regime.
If the USA was not willing to 'act' in support of using force, we should have developed efforts (it is still never too late) with old bretherens of support against this tyranny (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Guatemala), to launch an operation (in collaboration with internal Cuba FAR elements) to topple the CASTRO MAFIA.
Essentially, all that needs to be done is to initially CHOP OFF THE 2 HEADS FIRST, and then take down the other few heads, and it will all dissolve very quickly.
Guarapo, as they say in Cuba, the ideal scenario was that raul died before fidel. As per your analysis, it's correct, and very interesting!
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