Batista or Che?
There are a good deal of rumors hitting the street on every single Friday, most of them unfounded.
Like this one rumor of Raul going into exile much a la Batista.
First of all, nobody is putting a bag (with even more money than they have) in Raul's hands.
Second, and more importantly, the guy seems to be pretty much in control of the situation.
Let's review that:
1- Our sources in Cuba report that Raul have said in more than one occasion, recently, that he would like to retire at 80, with the condition that he can pass the "command" of the revolution to a well prepared person. ("pasar el mando de la revolucion a un cuadro bien preparado" these were his exact words) These words were pronounced a few days ago, when the economists were called to present their new model.
2- We believe that person is his nephew fidel castro diaz-balart (have you heard of brand recognition? that's what it is, Castro and Diaz Balart are as recognizable as Coca-Cola) Meaning the Release 2.0 will give way to the Release 3.0 (That's all in the manual called "Hereditary dictatorships for dummies") Fidelito's been trailing Uncle Raul for a while, now.... And his mom has become a regular visitor.
3- Nobody prevents him from leaving and entering the island at will, it that "exile gambit" were to occur the military would have prevented him from setting foot in the island after one of his "secret" (and not confirmed) trips.
4- There's no pressure in Cuba from the higher ups to force Raul out. The military high command is loyal to him, and they do not want him out because they want to keep on living the high life without the responsibility of running the country.
Let's not just be carried on by wishful thinking without thinking of this:
1- Who is for real behind this rumors? In my opinion, a good number of government agents are planting these rumors both in Cuba and in the USA in order to create an expectative and come out with a vengeance on the Cuban people if they do the most minimal movement.
2- The Cuban people is stressed to the maximum by their day to day difficulties, and there's no risk of uprising at this moment.
Could that change? Yes.
When? I don't know.
How? I don't know.
3- These rumors are hitting the street at the same time than the police presence is increased and the ministry of interior troops are hitting the street in every major Cuban city. Doesn't it say something?
4- All the rumors have a propaganda underlying to discredit the internal dissidency.
I would say that the only way for Raul to follow the path of his godfather Batista would be if someone threatens to pull a Che on him.
Is it desirable? Yes.
Is it lilkely? No.
Why?
Because:
1- Running a country is hell, and the higher ups are used to the benefits without the sacrifices. Since 1989, raul castro put all his cronies in top military positions, and they have a lot to lose if they get rid of him.
2- The top brass of the military fears that it could cause civilian unrest and a bloodshed, not because they fear the sight and smell of the blood of the Cuban people, they couldn't care less, but because they fear an American intervention.
3- The American government needs to keep the status quo in Cuba for reasons already discussed in many posts in this very same blog.
The ones to benefit of a sudden death or departure of raul would be the Cuban people at large, because a plug would be pulled off in the CIMEQ and a bearded corpse would be hitting the morgue very soon even before raul's body were to stiffen or raul bags were to be unpacked.
Does this benefit the higher ups, that the Cuban people has all the obstacles to their freedom suddenly removed? No.
Let's take a look now at raul's "secret" trips.
1- They are "reported" in a pretty sloppy manner.
2- Protocol is not followed, so it means that powerful elements in a foreign government are protecting him with more security than the one they provide for European royalty, and thus they afford him much more privacy than the one afforded for example to the Spanish Royal family.
3- There are no photographs, the locations where he went are partially listed, and names (like his son in law's) are not named.
Now, couldn't this be a rumor too? Yes. Even if te trip was real, it can be embellished with a lot of false data that can transform it into whatever it wasn't, thus creating a legend to be exploited later.
It coudl be a very well engineered rumor to distract the population of Cuba from something that is really happening at home.
And how do you distract them?
By planting rumors in exile, so the rumor hits Cuba and it carries instant credibility.
So after the update that raul was last week in Cuba, and in command, we need to add another update, as per this past Thursday, castro was still alive but in bad shape. Remember that it's unlikely that they use a weekend to announce his death.
Like this one rumor of Raul going into exile much a la Batista.
First of all, nobody is putting a bag (with even more money than they have) in Raul's hands.
Second, and more importantly, the guy seems to be pretty much in control of the situation.
Let's review that:
1- Our sources in Cuba report that Raul have said in more than one occasion, recently, that he would like to retire at 80, with the condition that he can pass the "command" of the revolution to a well prepared person. ("pasar el mando de la revolucion a un cuadro bien preparado" these were his exact words) These words were pronounced a few days ago, when the economists were called to present their new model.
2- We believe that person is his nephew fidel castro diaz-balart (have you heard of brand recognition? that's what it is, Castro and Diaz Balart are as recognizable as Coca-Cola) Meaning the Release 2.0 will give way to the Release 3.0 (That's all in the manual called "Hereditary dictatorships for dummies") Fidelito's been trailing Uncle Raul for a while, now.... And his mom has become a regular visitor.
3- Nobody prevents him from leaving and entering the island at will, it that "exile gambit" were to occur the military would have prevented him from setting foot in the island after one of his "secret" (and not confirmed) trips.
4- There's no pressure in Cuba from the higher ups to force Raul out. The military high command is loyal to him, and they do not want him out because they want to keep on living the high life without the responsibility of running the country.
Let's not just be carried on by wishful thinking without thinking of this:
1- Who is for real behind this rumors? In my opinion, a good number of government agents are planting these rumors both in Cuba and in the USA in order to create an expectative and come out with a vengeance on the Cuban people if they do the most minimal movement.
2- The Cuban people is stressed to the maximum by their day to day difficulties, and there's no risk of uprising at this moment.
Could that change? Yes.
When? I don't know.
How? I don't know.
3- These rumors are hitting the street at the same time than the police presence is increased and the ministry of interior troops are hitting the street in every major Cuban city. Doesn't it say something?
4- All the rumors have a propaganda underlying to discredit the internal dissidency.
I would say that the only way for Raul to follow the path of his godfather Batista would be if someone threatens to pull a Che on him.
Is it desirable? Yes.
Is it lilkely? No.
Why?
Because:
1- Running a country is hell, and the higher ups are used to the benefits without the sacrifices. Since 1989, raul castro put all his cronies in top military positions, and they have a lot to lose if they get rid of him.
2- The top brass of the military fears that it could cause civilian unrest and a bloodshed, not because they fear the sight and smell of the blood of the Cuban people, they couldn't care less, but because they fear an American intervention.
3- The American government needs to keep the status quo in Cuba for reasons already discussed in many posts in this very same blog.
The ones to benefit of a sudden death or departure of raul would be the Cuban people at large, because a plug would be pulled off in the CIMEQ and a bearded corpse would be hitting the morgue very soon even before raul's body were to stiffen or raul bags were to be unpacked.
Does this benefit the higher ups, that the Cuban people has all the obstacles to their freedom suddenly removed? No.
Let's take a look now at raul's "secret" trips.
1- They are "reported" in a pretty sloppy manner.
2- Protocol is not followed, so it means that powerful elements in a foreign government are protecting him with more security than the one they provide for European royalty, and thus they afford him much more privacy than the one afforded for example to the Spanish Royal family.
3- There are no photographs, the locations where he went are partially listed, and names (like his son in law's) are not named.
Now, couldn't this be a rumor too? Yes. Even if te trip was real, it can be embellished with a lot of false data that can transform it into whatever it wasn't, thus creating a legend to be exploited later.
It coudl be a very well engineered rumor to distract the population of Cuba from something that is really happening at home.
And how do you distract them?
By planting rumors in exile, so the rumor hits Cuba and it carries instant credibility.
So after the update that raul was last week in Cuba, and in command, we need to add another update, as per this past Thursday, castro was still alive but in bad shape. Remember that it's unlikely that they use a weekend to announce his death.
4 Comments:
Charlie:
I see what you mean, by planting the rumor here, Cubans in the Island believe it! wow talk about blowing my mind, how do you guys come up with this stuff? it never occured to me, so tell me, by doing this are they hoping for an uprising over there? or are they watching the people to see how they react? what a sick game this is
No, they are not hoping for an uprise, they know exaclty that the conditions are not favorable for a revolt, because they have been careful in let the opposition develop without a powerful leadership (they have infiltrated the internal dissidency to the hilt) They do it to see how people react so they can tailor their actions to suit the moment and also to divert the attention of the people from other things they plan.
How do we come up with this?
Well, we've got good sources who compile and transmit all sort of information for us.
CB . great post.there's some obvious misdirection going on with these rumors. people follow the rumors and miss the real news behind the rumor smokescreen-you know how it works.
Given all the facts, our prediction is that raul castro will first retire, and then leave to live his final years with his family and under the protection of the United States.
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