And Janelle said...
We all heard that Queen Raula la Horrible wans to talk with the U.S. and not only about shoes and makeup.
The response was quickly outline by the U.S. State Department spokeswoman Janelle Hironimus, who said that the Cuban government should first take some democratic steps.
"The dialogue that needs to take place is one between the Cuban regime and the Cuban people about the democratic future of the island," Hironimus said on Saturday. "Any deepening of our engagement with Cuba depends on that dialogue and the Cuban regime's willingness to take concrete steps toward a political opening and a transition to democracy."
Ok, let's read this for what it is.
"The dialogue that needs to take place is one between the Cuban regime and the Cuban people about the democratic future of the island".
Notice how the exiles have been left out of the game by the Department of State, isn't it interesting?
This is just carte blanche for the Tyranny Lite R 2.0 game to start.
The regime in Havana will say: hey, we have "elections" -and they will engineer one to show the support of "the people" for "la revolucion", a few marches all over Havana, and people screaming "viva fidel", and that condition will be checked out of the list. Somehow it remeinds me of the genial solution proposed by the Secretary of Commerce, Carlos Gutierrez, who (in)famously suggested to the Cuban government to conduct a referendum a few months ago.
Then they will point at The Ladies in White and say: "well, they can march and carry placards...." (all they will do is to up the surveillance on them without physical threats and that will be good for Jimi Carter and Bill Clinton to certify the regime peacefulness as lily white as a dove)
"Any deepening of our engagement with Cuba depends on that dialogue and the Cuban regime's willingness to take concrete steps toward a political opening and a transition to democracy."
Political opening: a few dissidents will be freed from jail, the surveillance over them will be upgraded a couple of notches and again the "observers" will rubber stamp all of this.
Transition to democracy: Let the dissidents air their differences in public -as it has happened before- let them show that they can have 200 organizations but not 1, and let them try to compete against half a century of well organized propaganda and against the will and high hopes of the governments of Cuba and the USA to patch up the differences between the two of them.
We need to read in that statement what's really been said:
"Make things look a tad better, be less politically vociferous -which is very easily doable due to the taciturn nature of la China- let the Cubans own some minuscule-overcontrolled personal business and let the dissidents out. We'll talk. Look, that's what China and Viet Nam did..." I guess that raul is writing "dear Janelle, thanks for your prompt response to my business proposal, I am pleasantly surprised that it just took your organization a couple of hours to analyze and deliver to us a positive response..."
(f)idel will be as relevant as Ho Chi Mihn is in today's Viet Nam. C'est a dire, not at all.
After all, the Vietnamese government has kept him as a symbol in death, so the method's proven, isn't it?
I will tell you what the real thing with these negotiations and conversations between the two governments is:
The two parties are waiting that kasstro is officially pronounced dead and buried to proceede. Everything will be calmer and the climate will be fine to talk and to trade. Remember when I said that the oil lying outside Cuba will be exploited with American participation? Wait and see!
We will see, that like in the cases of China and Vietnam, many of the business people who are going to be ready to do business with Cuba will be of Cuban origins. We will see how the stash of cash securely placed out of Cuba by the regime is going to come back, once it can produce benefits and returns at an American pace of business. We will see how American companies and European companies will compete for the pie in Cuba.
The phrase "remember Viet Nam" so dear of the lefties will change its meaning.
It would mean "it's a VIet Nam deja vu all over again".
Human rights and dissent will be set at an previously agreed minimum and "boat people" will be sent back (they are being sent back already) and voila, booming business.... Sad, but true.
Cash rules.
I have said in other occasion that the approach has been to do everything possible to install a regime modeled according to the Vietnamese method. These words were part of my comments from yesterday:
T(oday), with the elections of Venezuela, there's a big chance that el Mico Putumayo wins, as he has said, a las buenas o a las malas. So then, raul will get his share of the deal crafted in the past few days with el Mico. On the other side, and independently of the win or the lose of el Mico in Venezuela, raul will reach out to the USA and let's face it, the USA is not at all interested in having an unstable situation or civil war situation in Cuba, since the USA would be forced to intervene to solve the crisis. Nor is the USA interested in having a country in the region whose potential is such that could sink in a black hole the regional economy (as I have said before, the Caribbean basin, South Florida, New Orleans, Las Vegas and Mexico would suffer enourmously if Cuba suddenly opens up and grows freely) it would mean even a larger number of illegal imigrants trying to go to Cuba (and believe me, in Cuba nobody would want them and they would be sent back as they did with the balseros) and therefore said migrants would flock to the USA southern border.
In order to keep the stability of the region, the Vietnamese model seems to be ideal for both the Cuban government and the USA. Anyways, not much was done to take the tyranny out in the last 47 years, for the same reasons stated above. Money.
Now, it is lucrative for the States to have a country with an industrious population nearby, as long as the population is kept under control by what's coming, which is tyranny lite, release 2.0.
Do you remember Animal Farm?
The pigs negotiated with the humans at the end, and when the rest of the animals of the farm looked through the windows of the Manor House, they weren't able to distinguish anymore between pigs and humans. This is exactly what's happening today in Cuba.
The Cuban government calculated and designed this scenario many years ago. If the USA can send an ambassador (and enterprises, and money) to Viet Nam, after a war that cost around 60 000 American young lives, and that empowered the left around the world and provoked rabid anti-Americanism, then the USA government will not have any problems in negotiating and doing business with Cuba (as a matter of fact, that's being done already, 34 States have business with Cuba and many "consultants" and "lobbysts" visit Cuba on a regular basis)
The exiles? Do we really think that the US government care about the exiles? It seems that the answer is not positive. Elian was sent back to Cuba. The balseros are sent back to Cuba. Every single policy in regards to Cuba has failed to remove the system. Cubans are banned from taking efforts to liberate their own country by American law. Actually, the regime has benefited of everything that was supposedly done to obliterate it.
Be prepared to see talks if not with raul with somebody from the inner circles of power within Cuba.
Be prepared to see both the exiles and the internal oposition left out of any negotiation or conversation.
This happened already in 1898, when the Cuban mambises were left out of the negotiations between Spain and the USA.
One doesn't hear a peep about the Vietnamese exiles in the USA. One doesn't hear a peep about the human rights violations in Viet Nam, but one is constantly bombarded with text and images describing how profitable is doing business there. We even saw photos of Bush under the bust of Ho Chi Mihn. I wrote at that time that I wouldn't be surprised if Bush drank coffee under a mango tree in Havana with raul. It somehow seems to be awfuly close to happen tonight.
As I have written before, we will see "cultural tours" of Cuba, "culinary tours" of Cuba, afrocuban ceremonies for whoever wants to pay for them, percussion classes and so on and so for. I wish I were wrong and that we wake up to a free Cuba.
The response was quickly outline by the U.S. State Department spokeswoman Janelle Hironimus, who said that the Cuban government should first take some democratic steps.
"The dialogue that needs to take place is one between the Cuban regime and the Cuban people about the democratic future of the island," Hironimus said on Saturday. "Any deepening of our engagement with Cuba depends on that dialogue and the Cuban regime's willingness to take concrete steps toward a political opening and a transition to democracy."
Ok, let's read this for what it is.
"The dialogue that needs to take place is one between the Cuban regime and the Cuban people about the democratic future of the island".
Notice how the exiles have been left out of the game by the Department of State, isn't it interesting?
This is just carte blanche for the Tyranny Lite R 2.0 game to start.
The regime in Havana will say: hey, we have "elections" -and they will engineer one to show the support of "the people" for "la revolucion", a few marches all over Havana, and people screaming "viva fidel", and that condition will be checked out of the list. Somehow it remeinds me of the genial solution proposed by the Secretary of Commerce, Carlos Gutierrez, who (in)famously suggested to the Cuban government to conduct a referendum a few months ago.
Then they will point at The Ladies in White and say: "well, they can march and carry placards...." (all they will do is to up the surveillance on them without physical threats and that will be good for Jimi Carter and Bill Clinton to certify the regime peacefulness as lily white as a dove)
"Any deepening of our engagement with Cuba depends on that dialogue and the Cuban regime's willingness to take concrete steps toward a political opening and a transition to democracy."
Political opening: a few dissidents will be freed from jail, the surveillance over them will be upgraded a couple of notches and again the "observers" will rubber stamp all of this.
Transition to democracy: Let the dissidents air their differences in public -as it has happened before- let them show that they can have 200 organizations but not 1, and let them try to compete against half a century of well organized propaganda and against the will and high hopes of the governments of Cuba and the USA to patch up the differences between the two of them.
We need to read in that statement what's really been said:
"Make things look a tad better, be less politically vociferous -which is very easily doable due to the taciturn nature of la China- let the Cubans own some minuscule-overcontrolled personal business and let the dissidents out. We'll talk. Look, that's what China and Viet Nam did..." I guess that raul is writing "dear Janelle, thanks for your prompt response to my business proposal, I am pleasantly surprised that it just took your organization a couple of hours to analyze and deliver to us a positive response..."
(f)idel will be as relevant as Ho Chi Mihn is in today's Viet Nam. C'est a dire, not at all.
After all, the Vietnamese government has kept him as a symbol in death, so the method's proven, isn't it?
I will tell you what the real thing with these negotiations and conversations between the two governments is:
The two parties are waiting that kasstro is officially pronounced dead and buried to proceede. Everything will be calmer and the climate will be fine to talk and to trade. Remember when I said that the oil lying outside Cuba will be exploited with American participation? Wait and see!
We will see, that like in the cases of China and Vietnam, many of the business people who are going to be ready to do business with Cuba will be of Cuban origins. We will see how the stash of cash securely placed out of Cuba by the regime is going to come back, once it can produce benefits and returns at an American pace of business. We will see how American companies and European companies will compete for the pie in Cuba.
The phrase "remember Viet Nam" so dear of the lefties will change its meaning.
It would mean "it's a VIet Nam deja vu all over again".
Human rights and dissent will be set at an previously agreed minimum and "boat people" will be sent back (they are being sent back already) and voila, booming business.... Sad, but true.
Cash rules.
I have said in other occasion that the approach has been to do everything possible to install a regime modeled according to the Vietnamese method. These words were part of my comments from yesterday:
T(oday), with the elections of Venezuela, there's a big chance that el Mico Putumayo wins, as he has said, a las buenas o a las malas. So then, raul will get his share of the deal crafted in the past few days with el Mico. On the other side, and independently of the win or the lose of el Mico in Venezuela, raul will reach out to the USA and let's face it, the USA is not at all interested in having an unstable situation or civil war situation in Cuba, since the USA would be forced to intervene to solve the crisis. Nor is the USA interested in having a country in the region whose potential is such that could sink in a black hole the regional economy (as I have said before, the Caribbean basin, South Florida, New Orleans, Las Vegas and Mexico would suffer enourmously if Cuba suddenly opens up and grows freely) it would mean even a larger number of illegal imigrants trying to go to Cuba (and believe me, in Cuba nobody would want them and they would be sent back as they did with the balseros) and therefore said migrants would flock to the USA southern border.
In order to keep the stability of the region, the Vietnamese model seems to be ideal for both the Cuban government and the USA. Anyways, not much was done to take the tyranny out in the last 47 years, for the same reasons stated above. Money.
Now, it is lucrative for the States to have a country with an industrious population nearby, as long as the population is kept under control by what's coming, which is tyranny lite, release 2.0.
Do you remember Animal Farm?
The pigs negotiated with the humans at the end, and when the rest of the animals of the farm looked through the windows of the Manor House, they weren't able to distinguish anymore between pigs and humans. This is exactly what's happening today in Cuba.
The Cuban government calculated and designed this scenario many years ago. If the USA can send an ambassador (and enterprises, and money) to Viet Nam, after a war that cost around 60 000 American young lives, and that empowered the left around the world and provoked rabid anti-Americanism, then the USA government will not have any problems in negotiating and doing business with Cuba (as a matter of fact, that's being done already, 34 States have business with Cuba and many "consultants" and "lobbysts" visit Cuba on a regular basis)
The exiles? Do we really think that the US government care about the exiles? It seems that the answer is not positive. Elian was sent back to Cuba. The balseros are sent back to Cuba. Every single policy in regards to Cuba has failed to remove the system. Cubans are banned from taking efforts to liberate their own country by American law. Actually, the regime has benefited of everything that was supposedly done to obliterate it.
Be prepared to see talks if not with raul with somebody from the inner circles of power within Cuba.
Be prepared to see both the exiles and the internal oposition left out of any negotiation or conversation.
This happened already in 1898, when the Cuban mambises were left out of the negotiations between Spain and the USA.
One doesn't hear a peep about the Vietnamese exiles in the USA. One doesn't hear a peep about the human rights violations in Viet Nam, but one is constantly bombarded with text and images describing how profitable is doing business there. We even saw photos of Bush under the bust of Ho Chi Mihn. I wrote at that time that I wouldn't be surprised if Bush drank coffee under a mango tree in Havana with raul. It somehow seems to be awfuly close to happen tonight.
As I have written before, we will see "cultural tours" of Cuba, "culinary tours" of Cuba, afrocuban ceremonies for whoever wants to pay for them, percussion classes and so on and so for. I wish I were wrong and that we wake up to a free Cuba.
2 Comments:
Your assessment can be summarized in two words: painfully realistic.
That is our intention here Albert, to bring realistic assesments to the table, for painful that they are, reality bites, and very hard.
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