The Times They Are A-changin' : at warp speed!
Just like clockwork the predictability of the complete collapse of the Kuban apparatick could’ve been measured with a chronometer!
A week ago we mentioned that Cubans within the island had economic plans that would have Cuba on its feet and running within 3 years and that it would be done withouta CENT from the USA!
Ah those Japanese crystal balls are a god damn bargain !
The first VERY remarkable news is that the government of Kuba is getting outof the tourist business. We did report that hotel occupancy in Cuba was at less than 30% , folks really we do not pull these numbers outta our assesthey are given to us by VERY reliable sources! (read below as to HOW we get economic info from Kuba at from what level!)
As of last week itwas at less than 25% , Raul response , fuck it lets sell it back to the Spaniards at a discount price . So the partnerships are GONE , Melia owns 100% of all Melia resorts !
Like clockwork
And the changes are not even beginning!
A whole revision of the private property issue is being considered. In other words WHOEVER is in POWER now is looking at private property as the ONLYway to go!
Is everyone getting the significance of this?
Read and be amazed !
Un grupo de expertos cubanos debatirá los problemas del sistema de propiedad socialista en la isla y las deficiencias denunciadas por técnicos, economistas y por los medios de prensa oficiales. El proyecto de investigación está liderado por especialistas del Instituto de Filosofía cubano y planteado como una"investigación científica multidisciplinaria que no puede ser sólo económica", informó el diario oficial Juventud Rebelde, que no precisó la fecha de inicio de la actividad. El déficit de la oferta, los problemas de calidad de los servicios, la burocratización de la economía empresarial estatal y la detección de errores anteriores incluso al periodo especial (surgido tras el hundimiento del bloque socialista) son algunos de los planteamientos de técnicos y economistas sobre el panorama económico en la isla. Consultado por el diario, Ernesto Molina, profesor del departamento de Disciplinas Económicas y Técnicas deDirección en el Instituto Superior de Relaciones Internacionales, dijo queel socialismo cubano surgió en medio de una economía de escasez donde la oferta es deficitaria y no satisface la demanda de la población. "Lograr que esa oferta deje de ser deficitaria es fundamental", indicó, y afirmó que hace falta un proceso de transformaciones para el que hay que crear condiciones y en el que la "opinión pública desempeña un papel fundamental".
Luis MarceloYera, del Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Económicas (INIE), destacó la necesidad de trasladar decisiones a la base productiva al señalar que las "decisiones fundamentales en las empresas se toman en organismos gubernamentales"."Nos urge producir. La empresa estatal tiene que producir competitivamente", señaló, al asegurar que es "perfectamente posible tener un sistema empresarial estatal en Cuba liberado de ataduras burocráticas''. Omar Everleny, profesordel Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana, destacó que "le echamos la culpa al período especial (surgido tras el derrumbe del campo socialista)pero es que antes de 1989 tampoco funcionaba bien la esfera de servicios".
Juventud Rebelde ha venido denunciando la falta de eficiencia y las irregularidades que se cometen en distintos sectores económicos cubanos. El pasado 1 de octubrei nformó de que entre enero y agosto se realizaron 22.692 verificaciones integralesen centros de servicios y comerciales del estado que desvelaron que en 11.692de los establecimientos se encontraron "problemas". [EFE]
These names may sound foreign to you but I just HAPPEN to know these people personally!
These are the guys I would discuss economics with on my visits to Cuba (Yeah THOSE same visits I have been accused of being a ñangara for undetaking!). They have no plans or hope of USA economic aid because in fact they rather do it on their own and by the time the cavalry shows up , they wont be needed ! Ah! What a perfectly stupid loss for the USA.!
One of these experts is actually a childhood friend , having known each other for over 40 years!Dos mataperros de Marianao and one is leading an economic turn around that will give us the Cuba we all want! I am SPEECHLESS !
I can NOT believe how proud I am of this guy, more than a friend he is my brother and I fullyknow what is in his heart because a LOT of the economic ideas found in ournew constitution came from HIS ideas and suggestions. The Hong Kong model,the minimum business tax etc.
The government of Kuba IS actually thinking of going this way! I just can NOT in my wildest dreams believe this day willcome! NOT THIS FAST !
We have technically WON!
These are the guyswith the PLAN , just waiting to throw the switch . It is REALLY weird that they offered these plans 6 years ago to KaSStro in order to save the economy and KaSStro threw it all in the garbage and one guy in jail. “TOO LIBERAL”,TOO AVANT GARDE” TOO CAPITALISTIC” “YOU GUYS WANT TO OVERTHROW THE REVOLUTION”
Actually, the only thing was, that under this plan ALL the bullshit of 47 years wouldbe gone and KaSStros myth will begin to disintegrate ( I believe that is one of the bullet points of the transition! )
When Omar Everleny, professor of the Center for the Cuban economy OPENLY says
“We blamed the Special period (after the collapse of the Soviet Union) BUT even before 1989 our economic system just DID NOT WORK” and this is published in Juventud Revelde it means WE WON a HUGE battle
Not only that, when Juventud Revelde brags about
"complaining for a long time about the lack of efficiency and irregularities of the system"
They have expedited the Myth Destruction to warp speed. I just did not belivethey were gonna start throwing shit at KaSStro THIS fast , but ALAS thankgod for his miracles.
Juventud Revelde continues by stating that between Jan 2006 and Aug 2006 there were 22,692 verifications in commercial centers and it was found that 11,962 showed irregularities.
In other words again flat OUT and coming out of the closet THE SYSTEM IS SHIT!
A HISTORIC TURN AROUND for those who do NOT care about whether KaSStro is dead or NOT but DO care about the future of Cuba.
Well, the new bosses are surely reaching out for help, maybe hoping a change in economic profile may help them to stay in power , the BAD news for them is, that ALL that these economists are saying is that a DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISTstate needs to be at the helm for these changes to be of any use.
This is INDEED the beginning of the beginning!
Thanks to Enrique for his post – it has made me a VERY optimistic Cuban !
A week ago we mentioned that Cubans within the island had economic plans that would have Cuba on its feet and running within 3 years and that it would be done withouta CENT from the USA!
Ah those Japanese crystal balls are a god damn bargain !
The first VERY remarkable news is that the government of Kuba is getting outof the tourist business. We did report that hotel occupancy in Cuba was at less than 30% , folks really we do not pull these numbers outta our assesthey are given to us by VERY reliable sources! (read below as to HOW we get economic info from Kuba at from what level!)
As of last week itwas at less than 25% , Raul response , fuck it lets sell it back to the Spaniards at a discount price . So the partnerships are GONE , Melia owns 100% of all Melia resorts !
Like clockwork
And the changes are not even beginning!
A whole revision of the private property issue is being considered. In other words WHOEVER is in POWER now is looking at private property as the ONLYway to go!
Is everyone getting the significance of this?
Read and be amazed !
Un grupo de expertos cubanos debatirá los problemas del sistema de propiedad socialista en la isla y las deficiencias denunciadas por técnicos, economistas y por los medios de prensa oficiales. El proyecto de investigación está liderado por especialistas del Instituto de Filosofía cubano y planteado como una"investigación científica multidisciplinaria que no puede ser sólo económica", informó el diario oficial Juventud Rebelde, que no precisó la fecha de inicio de la actividad. El déficit de la oferta, los problemas de calidad de los servicios, la burocratización de la economía empresarial estatal y la detección de errores anteriores incluso al periodo especial (surgido tras el hundimiento del bloque socialista) son algunos de los planteamientos de técnicos y economistas sobre el panorama económico en la isla. Consultado por el diario, Ernesto Molina, profesor del departamento de Disciplinas Económicas y Técnicas deDirección en el Instituto Superior de Relaciones Internacionales, dijo queel socialismo cubano surgió en medio de una economía de escasez donde la oferta es deficitaria y no satisface la demanda de la población. "Lograr que esa oferta deje de ser deficitaria es fundamental", indicó, y afirmó que hace falta un proceso de transformaciones para el que hay que crear condiciones y en el que la "opinión pública desempeña un papel fundamental".
Luis MarceloYera, del Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Económicas (INIE), destacó la necesidad de trasladar decisiones a la base productiva al señalar que las "decisiones fundamentales en las empresas se toman en organismos gubernamentales"."Nos urge producir. La empresa estatal tiene que producir competitivamente", señaló, al asegurar que es "perfectamente posible tener un sistema empresarial estatal en Cuba liberado de ataduras burocráticas''. Omar Everleny, profesordel Centro de Estudios de la Economía Cubana, destacó que "le echamos la culpa al período especial (surgido tras el derrumbe del campo socialista)pero es que antes de 1989 tampoco funcionaba bien la esfera de servicios".
Juventud Rebelde ha venido denunciando la falta de eficiencia y las irregularidades que se cometen en distintos sectores económicos cubanos. El pasado 1 de octubrei nformó de que entre enero y agosto se realizaron 22.692 verificaciones integralesen centros de servicios y comerciales del estado que desvelaron que en 11.692de los establecimientos se encontraron "problemas". [EFE]
These names may sound foreign to you but I just HAPPEN to know these people personally!
These are the guys I would discuss economics with on my visits to Cuba (Yeah THOSE same visits I have been accused of being a ñangara for undetaking!). They have no plans or hope of USA economic aid because in fact they rather do it on their own and by the time the cavalry shows up , they wont be needed ! Ah! What a perfectly stupid loss for the USA.!
One of these experts is actually a childhood friend , having known each other for over 40 years!Dos mataperros de Marianao and one is leading an economic turn around that will give us the Cuba we all want! I am SPEECHLESS !
I can NOT believe how proud I am of this guy, more than a friend he is my brother and I fullyknow what is in his heart because a LOT of the economic ideas found in ournew constitution came from HIS ideas and suggestions. The Hong Kong model,the minimum business tax etc.
The government of Kuba IS actually thinking of going this way! I just can NOT in my wildest dreams believe this day willcome! NOT THIS FAST !
We have technically WON!
These are the guyswith the PLAN , just waiting to throw the switch . It is REALLY weird that they offered these plans 6 years ago to KaSStro in order to save the economy and KaSStro threw it all in the garbage and one guy in jail. “TOO LIBERAL”,TOO AVANT GARDE” TOO CAPITALISTIC” “YOU GUYS WANT TO OVERTHROW THE REVOLUTION”
Actually, the only thing was, that under this plan ALL the bullshit of 47 years wouldbe gone and KaSStros myth will begin to disintegrate ( I believe that is one of the bullet points of the transition! )
When Omar Everleny, professor of the Center for the Cuban economy OPENLY says
“We blamed the Special period (after the collapse of the Soviet Union) BUT even before 1989 our economic system just DID NOT WORK” and this is published in Juventud Revelde it means WE WON a HUGE battle
Not only that, when Juventud Revelde brags about
"complaining for a long time about the lack of efficiency and irregularities of the system"
They have expedited the Myth Destruction to warp speed. I just did not belivethey were gonna start throwing shit at KaSStro THIS fast , but ALAS thankgod for his miracles.
Juventud Revelde continues by stating that between Jan 2006 and Aug 2006 there were 22,692 verifications in commercial centers and it was found that 11,962 showed irregularities.
In other words again flat OUT and coming out of the closet THE SYSTEM IS SHIT!
A HISTORIC TURN AROUND for those who do NOT care about whether KaSStro is dead or NOT but DO care about the future of Cuba.
Well, the new bosses are surely reaching out for help, maybe hoping a change in economic profile may help them to stay in power , the BAD news for them is, that ALL that these economists are saying is that a DEMOCRATIC CAPITALISTstate needs to be at the helm for these changes to be of any use.
This is INDEED the beginning of the beginning!
Thanks to Enrique for his post – it has made me a VERY optimistic Cuban !
12 Comments:
kill ese comentario lo cogi del blog del herald de Rui Ferreira , el lo reprodujo de agencias EFE
no meresco el credito en todo caso el
Since I know these guys PERSONALLY I KNOW we are NOT dealing with BULLSHIT we are dealing with SOLID patriots, I wouldnt have known in a million years because their emails are strictly monitored , perhaps that has changed I will know tomorrow !
At any rate :
You brought it our attention Enrique so how about Rui Ferreira gets a shared thanks?
Well, that's the plan in motion!
I’m not as optimistic as you, but this is huge.
Jeez, in one blow they critiqued and indicted the socialist model then called for a new model. It was only about a month ago that Juventud Rebelde started its “investigative” reporting.That’s a leap, not baby steps.
No mention of the embargo.
I don’t see where they are moving towards private property, though. They say that its still possible to have government business where the decision making would be pushed down to the business and be competative that way. That’s more Mainland China than Honkongese. But I guess its on the table for discussion.
In some circles, the Juventud Rebelde “articles” were seen as uncoming tightening of governemental control and more misery. This tilts it more towards KILLCASTRO’s analysis and predictions.
Well, from Marianao,the city of progress, that brought you Tropicana and the mojito, comes a new future.(maybe).
Gusano, we are optimistic because we know about the underlyings of these "studies". We know what they mean, and we know how the phases work, this whole thing is a process that will culminate with a big bang change probably before the end of the year.
El mico putumayo is not happy.
He knows that the new Cuban industry will need nothing from him, and that a free Cuba will be his worst enemy and his worst nemesis in the politic and economic realms.
We will see this title in more than one economic sciences and business magazine: "Cuba, The New Tiger".
Gusano -
I am THAT optimistic because THIS should’ve taken about a year in my time line to be made public. YES they will go back to all the stuff that was stifled or discarded by KaSStro but should NOT have begun making it public THIS fast ! SOME big steps are being taken VERY early on , remember that BY THE BOOK KaSStro would not be tagged as incompetent until well after he was declared dead (officially)
Well, the "private property" part IS in there but VERY disguised, and I know a little more about THIS than that which has been published. ;)
It all revolves around the inability of governmental control of industries to compete efficiently because inherently any business controlled by the government will carry built in bureaucracies that will make them incapable to produce at a profit making margins at sufficient production levels.
The published article is dealing with Cuba as it is NOW but does SAY:
“our economic system just DID NOT WORK” what do you think they are referring to ?
When Raul gives up all control of Tourism to private enterprises, where do you think that is leading to ?
Case in point, the government of the USA!
If business taxes, instead of being collected by the government were passed as benefits to the employees and just 30% of those taxes were collected by the government and ALL the agencies built to handle the collection and distribution of taxes were eliminated the net savings would be tremendous.
Ever see a PRODUCTIVE government agency, even here in the USA?
The China model is VERY deceptive, because the DEMOCRATIC part of the model is not in place, BUT there IS private property in China and a LOT of IT!
Huge manufacturing plants, from Japan, Germany, Spain and France, and the USA is also in there with consulting services etc.
The NEXT logical step will be democracy, why? Because people WILL demand it.
They may be swimming in cash but cash brings a sense of freedom and a new desire for independence, and China CAN NOT afford to pull another Tiananmen Square without getting some VERY valuable investors pissed off.
Look at Franco’s Spain. Franco REBUILT Spain to a economic super power in Europe BUT he was a dictator! Did people in Spain realize how good they had it under Franco even though it was a dictatorship? NOPE. They wanted to see PORN sold in the streets. Yeah it was AS fucking stupid as that! On the very first open election in Spain after Franco’s death and after decades of asking for FREE ELECTIONS , only 20% of Spaniards went to vote. I remember I was in Spain at the time and the University closed for ONE WEEK !. I was going out with a Spaniard girl and I asked what her plans were, who would she vote for? Her answer,”Oh it’s a WEEK off we are all going to the beach!
Also, the economic model that IS in the books takes into consideration that a democracy is inevitable because of the nearness to the USA , whereas in China they can get away with a lot more repression.
Remember that the USA “promise” is to establish relations if a KaSStro is not in power AND if democracy returns so , the people will demand THAT and whoever is in charge will no be able to stop it.
So YES this LEAP in only a few weeks from blaming the embargo to blaming themselves makes ME VERY optimistic , and if you saw what is coming you’d be a LOT more optimistic also ;)
I think that maybe in the next few days we will have more optimism amongst our readers.
Don't you think so KC?
After 47 years of disappointments I can see how EVERYONE is leery. I can go blue in the face swearing as to the reliability of these guys (because I grew up with one of them and broke bread an CERVEZA with all of them ) but I see how someone may doubt their intentions.
We have become a group of doubting Thomas and “Lo creo cuando lo vea” the sad part of this is that if some of us had NOT gone by instinct and gut feeling and built some good will THERE NOTHING wouldve been accomplished. Where we to doubt EVERYONE in Cuba we’d have NOTHING to give back to Cuba .
I PERSONALLY was taken aback by the speed in which the changes seem to be taken place. This only indicates that the situation is a lot more precarious that anyone thought it was. But if we put our reports together we do see they are drowning!
No police in the streets, no military presence, the government selling back the tourist industry to foreign corps, no communication phone or otherwise within Cuba ? The infrastructure is just gone, but still some people will doubt because some have claimed VICTORY so many times and all we have gotten is a 7 hours KaSStroSpeak coming back from the dead.
So, yes it is fully understandable BUT, at some point some kind of TRUST must be built because you and I know they in Cuba also do not trust a LOT of Cuban-Americans and we need to reconstruct that bridge, otherwise we are fucked! I think the indicated people to do that are those who have the trust of BOTH sides and it is up to US to reintroduce los de esta orilla to those en la otra orilla !
gentlemen: don't get me wrong i'm cautiously optimistic.
when you take the whole Marianao Plan:
the study, in context with the hotels deal, the cruise ship annoucement,last weeks biomed deal with the chinese and lasts month's outsourcing deal with the canadians.
thats a great start to bring fast cash in without any huge infrastuctural investments.
then when you add to that casinos like you mentioned AND cuba's already famous agricultural potential and entertainment and you said banking. its a damm good start.
and i agree that once people have cash, you have a middle class, and then you have to keep them happy because they pay the bills.
im glad you reinforced the part about the phrasiology because thats is the part i'm very weak on. i have to read it over very carefully and interpret it.
about the trst thing. those that are stuck over there have to work and have to work at what they do best if they can. so the fact that anyone would try and better the lives of their brethern is nothing to distrust. its the right thing to do.personally i have a lot of respect for anyone who can live over there and still fight for a future for their kids.
i take it i will be drinking a celebratory mojito soon.
thanks for the heads up.
The Marianao Plan
God they are gonna love THAT!
Trust me they work so hard it is incredible because they HAD to work on two sets of books, the "official" ones and the REAL ones, and the real one they had to do at home , with NO PC . Pieces of paper needed to me smuggled out copied by hand and then put back the next morning.
In plain English , the document says SOCIALISM DOESNT WORK , but they can NOT come straight out and say THAT , they need to hint. The most DAMAGING statement is that the Periodo Especial was sheer bullshit because they were already fucked. Now add to that the goverment corruption where 50% of goverment controlled industries showed some kind of "problem"
The message is clear to those in the island (to some of us it may be a bit obtuse)
"EL OJO DEL AMO ENGORDA EL CABALLO" and while industry of ANY kind is controlled by the goverment it can NOT function at optimum productivity because NO ONE REALLY benefits.
What you read was a very fast GLIMPSE as to the deeper document but trust me , the people in Cuba read all the importance that carried specially NOT once blaming any embargo.
And these guys have been working feverishly to stop that embargo myth , they tried to convince the higher ups that if the dropped this "EMBARGO" bullshit as an excuse then the people would be more productive , but of course KaSStro vetoed THAT simple but very logical idea.
I am assuming we will hear a LOT more from these guys and as the PLAN gets revelaed you will be amazed as to how much worked has gone into it.
For ONE , the BIBLE of all Socialist/Communist doctrines is The Capital by Marx , BUT .. people have totally ignored his later works , where he endorses PRIVATE PROPERTY with the exception of LAND (which was what fucked US up- the 10 thusand hecatares of unproductive land owned by one family) EASY propagnda for a populist prick to get the symphathy of the people.
The plan is so radically far ahead of its time (as economics go) a lotta countries are gonna go "whattdafuck was THAT?!
And as I said before the IRONIC thing is that the PLAN WILL work because the begin with a clean canvas and NO baggage!
I am sure we WILL be drinking MOJITOS at TROPICANA a LOT sooner than anyone expected !
In context of this revelation, is the return of the U.S. dollar in the hands of Cuban citizens something that we should expect soon?
and would this be a further sign of the direction of things? or would this be a 'too visible' sign of direction that the regime does not want to allow yet?
No it will not be inmediate, reasoning :
As we have said from the day it was imposed the measures against going to Cuba and the sending of remitances , only HELPED the KaSStro goverment. The free exchange of dollars in the streets was viable as long as there was tourism and Cuban visits. The stopping of the free flow of USA Dollars gives the goverment a lot more revenue than the free flow of dollars. Again economics.
Less dollars going to Cuba means they have to squeeze MORE of the dollars that DO get in. Divesting themselves from the tourism Biz means that they are TOTALLY cash poor so until the Melias , open up a full tilt toursm campaig do not expect the dollars to flow freely. Also all the advances they had made in small/free enterprises who dealt strictly in dollars have been lost so theres to imperative reason to change the status quo at this moment.
The tourism RUSH will take a while because even though Melia can do their best to bring tourists in , they can not help the infrstructure, the black out, the lack of staples at restaurants and more important the Dengue threat , so the explanation is that NO we will not see the dollar flow freely in Kuba until a few more things fall into place.
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