History refresher, and some bullet points.
I will address this for the last time...
My e-mail box was flooded with over-optimistic messages about the impending changes, for the good they say, coming immediately in Cuba after the death of kasstro.
We have said it many times, there will not be possitives changes in Cuba while the remnants of the tyranny stay in place or while people involved in the repression of the the people of Cuba keep their hands firmly on the helm.
The most accurate example we can present for public understanding of the political situation in Cuba is a mixture between a monarchy being handed down to the heir and the Soviet model, since Cuba is the only example of a Communist monarchy that ever existed.
The model works this way:
1- Imagine the Soviet Union of the old days where Lenin is dying and Stalin is standing by the bedside ready to be acclaimed as a new leader, mixed with a Goth kingdom of yesteryear, while a sickly king hands the reins of the tribe and kingdom to his younger brother.
2- From there on, the scenario becomes totally entrenched in the Soviet tradition:
A ruthless killer dies, an even ruthless killer takes power. Power struggle ensues, but without a international pressure the system survives, and the apparatchniks regroup under a "leadership" of brutality.
3- One must understand that kasstro has never run the country on a day to day basis. That was raul duty, he ran the defense, the tourism, the (scarces) supplies and services to the population all behind the scenes, while kasstro -more charismatic and with more pressence as a "leader" although in Il Duce way, was the man of the big gestures. And then you have Valdes, who was in the darkness, reigning all over the penal system and the dungeons, and procuring hard currency through contraband, smuggling, drug trafficking, weapon trafficking, diamond and ivory black market, rogue software engineering, and international blackmailing. Remember, this Valdes guy actually was instrumental in getting the repression and surveillance up to first world standards, so up to snuff that even the Stassi, the Mossad, and the KGB looked up to him.
4- So the "no castro no problem" slogan which one of my friends signed his e-mail is just an edulcorated and populist view of history. Things are not simple. Let's see:
No castro. Big problem. A prick like raul will never get anything from the States.... or will him? A prick like Valdes seems to be the United States favorite horse in the derby. We have said why. He's the wild card that ensures that in Cuba there's no sudden change so the economic gears of the region keep on whirling in a way that the market forces and the service and tourism industry don't crumble down and generate political and ecomomic problems that could lead to violence and a surge in illegal immigration.
5- Having said that, once the geopolitical scene is ready for it, Cuba will start drifting to a controlled transition, after the old guard dies off, and after many deals are worked out under (and over) the negotiation table.
Are we happy with this?
Y'all can bet we aren't.
6- The United States need a smooth regime change in Cuba. Smooth regime changes are not your typical regime change. From communism they will wind up with another strange system that is not going to be totally democratic, a little bit more open, but with ex-communists, official blackmarketers, and military honchos at the helm. Will dissension be tolerated? Maybe in just a theatrical "let's show the world that we are not that bad" kind of way. Be analytical here and read the Cuban press: you will see how the past tense is already employed while talking about kasstro and how his figure is not omnipressent anymore. Some veiled disaccreditation is already starting, and once the guy is officially recognized dead the press will start singing the praises of kasstro for a few days, and then little by little they will drift away from him. Y'all might be asking yourselves why the U.S. is willing to do this: simple, to avoid a civil war in Cuba. With the example of Iraq, the American public is not willing to see this country involved in yet another armed conflict.
The model designed for Cuba is based on what is said in item number 7.
7- Economics and time are two among the factors of the formula that is being considered for the future of Cuba.
Economics: Cuba will emerge as the Fort Knox of information and data recovery in the world. Among the global services that Cuba will offer will be: banking, tax haven, neutral ground for negotiations, software and hardware producer, recording studios, 3d imaginery, specialized plastic surgery -including sex changes, and also as an offshore homebase for European and American celebrities. It will be the country of "no questions asked, ever" confidentiality model.
I know that at this point some of you are asking yourselves how do we know this at KillCastro, and all I can tell you is that our well placed sources have confirmed all of this.
8- The U.S. will do whatever to recuperate the terrain missed on Cuba, entrepeneurs from Europe have a now a very good base in Cuba. They have helped many Cubans to hold steady jobs off (the Government's) grid, have helped many people to leave and return to Cuba, and have bought many property deeds from both Cubans in the island and exiles. Also, they know that an European styled social democray is the system preferred by the Cubans in the island. For this:
9- Ex-communists will have to particpate in the society and government of the future Cuba, we like it or not. The first thing will be to draw the difference between a criminal and an ex-communist. There are many criminals who aren't even members of the Party, and there are many Party members who are not criminals and who are honest individuals. There's is dissent among the rank and file of the communist party, and those soon to be ex-members have to be allowed to have a presence in Cuban society.
10- Exiles will return to Cuba either as permanenet residents, tourists, or investors. The technical know how of exiles, their experience in democracy and finance is part of the future wealth of the new human capital of Cuba.
11- Cuban professionals residing in the island. They know the particularities of the culture, the habits, and the unique relationship with foreing investors presently established in the island. They are the counterbalance versus the blackmarketers, rogue military, and people who are presently involved in the repression. They also know first hand the weakest points of the system and the cruming infrastrucure of island. They know many Cuban exiles who are professionals in their very same fields and with whom they will work in a future Cuba.
12- Wall Street. Remember la Calle Obispo in Old Havana? It was Wall Street South and it will return to be that. Watch our for a renaissance of stock trading with a backbone of high technology. Very influential in this future are two stock markets, the London and Madrid exchanges. Wall Street? Corporate banks? they will have a place there too.
Having said all of this, we can say that there are some conditions that are needed for a free Cuba:
1- Kasstro Bros., Inc. has to be dissolved, and that includes all the communist bureaucracy. The repressive machine has to be disassembled and destroyed, and this will not happen overnight. There will be a post communist period, we like it or not, and we don't like it.
2- The Cuban people needs to be helped in the reconstruction of the country and in the creation of wealth. Without personal prosperity there will not be any freedom in Cuba.
3- The armed forces have to be reduced and streamlined. A professional army needs to be created just geared to the defense of the island, breaking the tradition of invader army as the one involved in different military adventures in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
4- The police state has to be dismantled.
Is there a plan for all of this?
Yes.
Where?
Within the island and abroad.
These are the answers to some readers' question: what will happen once kasstro dies? and to another reader's assertion "no castro no problem"
My e-mail box was flooded with over-optimistic messages about the impending changes, for the good they say, coming immediately in Cuba after the death of kasstro.
We have said it many times, there will not be possitives changes in Cuba while the remnants of the tyranny stay in place or while people involved in the repression of the the people of Cuba keep their hands firmly on the helm.
The most accurate example we can present for public understanding of the political situation in Cuba is a mixture between a monarchy being handed down to the heir and the Soviet model, since Cuba is the only example of a Communist monarchy that ever existed.
The model works this way:
1- Imagine the Soviet Union of the old days where Lenin is dying and Stalin is standing by the bedside ready to be acclaimed as a new leader, mixed with a Goth kingdom of yesteryear, while a sickly king hands the reins of the tribe and kingdom to his younger brother.
2- From there on, the scenario becomes totally entrenched in the Soviet tradition:
A ruthless killer dies, an even ruthless killer takes power. Power struggle ensues, but without a international pressure the system survives, and the apparatchniks regroup under a "leadership" of brutality.
3- One must understand that kasstro has never run the country on a day to day basis. That was raul duty, he ran the defense, the tourism, the (scarces) supplies and services to the population all behind the scenes, while kasstro -more charismatic and with more pressence as a "leader" although in Il Duce way, was the man of the big gestures. And then you have Valdes, who was in the darkness, reigning all over the penal system and the dungeons, and procuring hard currency through contraband, smuggling, drug trafficking, weapon trafficking, diamond and ivory black market, rogue software engineering, and international blackmailing. Remember, this Valdes guy actually was instrumental in getting the repression and surveillance up to first world standards, so up to snuff that even the Stassi, the Mossad, and the KGB looked up to him.
4- So the "no castro no problem" slogan which one of my friends signed his e-mail is just an edulcorated and populist view of history. Things are not simple. Let's see:
No castro. Big problem. A prick like raul will never get anything from the States.... or will him? A prick like Valdes seems to be the United States favorite horse in the derby. We have said why. He's the wild card that ensures that in Cuba there's no sudden change so the economic gears of the region keep on whirling in a way that the market forces and the service and tourism industry don't crumble down and generate political and ecomomic problems that could lead to violence and a surge in illegal immigration.
5- Having said that, once the geopolitical scene is ready for it, Cuba will start drifting to a controlled transition, after the old guard dies off, and after many deals are worked out under (and over) the negotiation table.
Are we happy with this?
Y'all can bet we aren't.
6- The United States need a smooth regime change in Cuba. Smooth regime changes are not your typical regime change. From communism they will wind up with another strange system that is not going to be totally democratic, a little bit more open, but with ex-communists, official blackmarketers, and military honchos at the helm. Will dissension be tolerated? Maybe in just a theatrical "let's show the world that we are not that bad" kind of way. Be analytical here and read the Cuban press: you will see how the past tense is already employed while talking about kasstro and how his figure is not omnipressent anymore. Some veiled disaccreditation is already starting, and once the guy is officially recognized dead the press will start singing the praises of kasstro for a few days, and then little by little they will drift away from him. Y'all might be asking yourselves why the U.S. is willing to do this: simple, to avoid a civil war in Cuba. With the example of Iraq, the American public is not willing to see this country involved in yet another armed conflict.
The model designed for Cuba is based on what is said in item number 7.
7- Economics and time are two among the factors of the formula that is being considered for the future of Cuba.
Economics: Cuba will emerge as the Fort Knox of information and data recovery in the world. Among the global services that Cuba will offer will be: banking, tax haven, neutral ground for negotiations, software and hardware producer, recording studios, 3d imaginery, specialized plastic surgery -including sex changes, and also as an offshore homebase for European and American celebrities. It will be the country of "no questions asked, ever" confidentiality model.
I know that at this point some of you are asking yourselves how do we know this at KillCastro, and all I can tell you is that our well placed sources have confirmed all of this.
8- The U.S. will do whatever to recuperate the terrain missed on Cuba, entrepeneurs from Europe have a now a very good base in Cuba. They have helped many Cubans to hold steady jobs off (the Government's) grid, have helped many people to leave and return to Cuba, and have bought many property deeds from both Cubans in the island and exiles. Also, they know that an European styled social democray is the system preferred by the Cubans in the island. For this:
9- Ex-communists will have to particpate in the society and government of the future Cuba, we like it or not. The first thing will be to draw the difference between a criminal and an ex-communist. There are many criminals who aren't even members of the Party, and there are many Party members who are not criminals and who are honest individuals. There's is dissent among the rank and file of the communist party, and those soon to be ex-members have to be allowed to have a presence in Cuban society.
10- Exiles will return to Cuba either as permanenet residents, tourists, or investors. The technical know how of exiles, their experience in democracy and finance is part of the future wealth of the new human capital of Cuba.
11- Cuban professionals residing in the island. They know the particularities of the culture, the habits, and the unique relationship with foreing investors presently established in the island. They are the counterbalance versus the blackmarketers, rogue military, and people who are presently involved in the repression. They also know first hand the weakest points of the system and the cruming infrastrucure of island. They know many Cuban exiles who are professionals in their very same fields and with whom they will work in a future Cuba.
12- Wall Street. Remember la Calle Obispo in Old Havana? It was Wall Street South and it will return to be that. Watch our for a renaissance of stock trading with a backbone of high technology. Very influential in this future are two stock markets, the London and Madrid exchanges. Wall Street? Corporate banks? they will have a place there too.
Having said all of this, we can say that there are some conditions that are needed for a free Cuba:
1- Kasstro Bros., Inc. has to be dissolved, and that includes all the communist bureaucracy. The repressive machine has to be disassembled and destroyed, and this will not happen overnight. There will be a post communist period, we like it or not, and we don't like it.
2- The Cuban people needs to be helped in the reconstruction of the country and in the creation of wealth. Without personal prosperity there will not be any freedom in Cuba.
3- The armed forces have to be reduced and streamlined. A professional army needs to be created just geared to the defense of the island, breaking the tradition of invader army as the one involved in different military adventures in Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
4- The police state has to be dismantled.
Is there a plan for all of this?
Yes.
Where?
Within the island and abroad.
These are the answers to some readers' question: what will happen once kasstro dies? and to another reader's assertion "no castro no problem"
6 Comments:
hey i need help with cuban telophony for J Papp. if either of you can email me
about a question i have about a number in havana. @ r.a.potts@comcast.net i would appreciate it. thanks, r.
Cuban phone numbers are six or five figures. Never seven.
One needs to dial 011 537 and then whatever phone number you might have.
KC,
"since Cuba is the only example of a Communist monarchy that ever existed."
But there is another example of communist monarchy, precisely now in the news. North Korea. Kim IL-Sung died and his son took over.
I agree with your assessment of a post-castro Cuba. It happened with "Iosif, the georgian killer", but it took 3 years for his henchmen to dennounce him and all his crimes. I think that castro's death will shake the foundantions of the system but it will not tumble it and bring it down inmediately. There might be plans to deal with the event of his death and stage manage it, but no one knows how the people in Cuba will react. Least of all the henchmen around the top. I desire a change to a full democracy ASAP, but I don't think that is what we are going to get in the near future. The "little brother" has never believed in democracy and pluripartidism and I don't think he will change now. But hey, he is 75 years old and he drinks like a fish, so I don't think he will be around for long. We all want the same thing. A free Cuba with full democracy, full human rights, and the right for the Cuban people to choose who should govern them, from a list of parties and candidates. However I will add to the new Constitution a ban on the communist party to run for any office, as it was done in Germany after World War II.
Anyway, I think any socialist party has spent their last bullet sort of speak, in Cuba and no one will ever pay attention to their evil fantasies and lies anymore. Let's hope God hears our prayers and help us in our endeavor. Keep up the good work. I visit your site daily although I post a small comment once in a blue moon.Thanks.
The Korean case is less than a monarchy.
The ceremonials of the government in Cuba point more to the monarchy model, in terms of protocol, historical model, and spirit.
In Asia, that's more like an imperial trend, but in the case of Korea it's just a Mongol tribal thing. To say that such primitive dictators like Big Kim and Lil' Kim are a communist monarchy is to give them too much credit.
They have even an ideary that is not communist per se, it's something even worse, the Idea Juche.
Follow this link: http://www.rickross.com/reference/nkorea/nkorea2.html and you will see what I am talking about.
The “banning” of the communist party was considered but to paraphrase Shakespeare, “Shit by any other name will STILL smell as foul”
Those pricks can come in under ANY guise , any name it doesn’t have the be the “Communist” party so why establish what may be perceived as a human rights violation right off the bat ?
Believe me there was a LOT of thought given to each and every one of those lines of text!!
Notice how Islam is treated without banning a particular “religion” but by banning “cults”!
There are enough items of contention within the document that will make the rise of a Communist government in a FREE Cuba impossible (such as control of influences from foreign nations) and if not there is still the Cuban people. I want to see ONE motherfucker call him/herself communist after freedom has been restored in our country.
Would be a GREAT way of committing suicide!
After CB’s excellent assessment of how and WHEN we will have a free Cuba there is very little to ad but there is something to emphasize!
The already ongoing complicity of the USA as far as their own interests are concerned.
I had a personal email where someone who mentioned that our view that a FREE Cuba will be chaotic for Southern Florida and they disagreed with us. Offering VERY valid points.
Fine accepted, a LOT of the initial construction materials and infrastructure hard and software will come from the USA, but NOT necessarily from South Florida.
When the jobs begin to make themselves available a lot of recent expatriates will go back and a lot of old timers will go back. But what happens to Cheo’s Muebleria in Hialeah?
Or Cuca’s Friteria? Will they pack up and open a “branch in Cuba ….. Let’s get real!
If you or anyone is keeping an eye in South Florida especially in Miami you will find that tourism is already NOT what it was. The Sheraton Bel-Harbor recently closed while 3 new Melia resorts opened in Kuba!
Strange when you consider that these Cuban resorts are at BEST functioning at a 40% occupancy!
What does the Sheraton chain know? It is a WELL known fact that the Sheraton people have met with VERY high government officials in Kuba! I guess trying to play catch up. But it is going to be EXPENSIVE!
Let us ALL remember that the Melia chain brought ALL of their building materials from Spain! Down to the god damn floor tiles and faucets. So they neceseraily do NOT need to come to the USA to buy anything!
Let us remember that as CB mentioned The Melia chain VERY DILIGENTLY searched out the original owners of the properties where their Hotels and Tourist facilities are and paid THEM as well as paying the KaSStro government for the land. Melia OWNS Cuba at a tourist level and NO Hilton or Sheraton in the world is gonna touch that! Also the economics of Cuba will make it VERY attractive to vacation in Cuba, just for the simple reason that NOONE expects a 15% tip !
Now if you live in South Florida you see your life as it is on a daily basis, when you go there as a tourist you realize how ridiculously expensive vacationing in Miami is!
My last trip (in fact I stayed at the Sheraton Bel-Harbor) the room had gone up 45% since my last trip. Tips were already added to your bill at 15% in a very shady kindda way – and I, like a god damn moron, kept tipping another 15%! Well needless to say had the Sheraton NOT closed I was not going to stay there anymore (as much as I LOVED that place I just do not make THAT kindda bucks). On the other hands friends from Miami vacation in NYC and wonder why everything is so cheap!
For tourists it is, but try to keep up with taxes, and food in NYC. TRY living in NYC with a middle class salary. You just can NOT! But for tourists and those places they visit is like “WOAH” CHEAP CITY!
The economics of this are clear, NYC is NOT dependant on tourism as an industry hence in order to attract tourists they make it VERY inexpensive to stay at a DAMN good hotel and since the NYC economy is in the shit hole, clothing and any other non staples typical purchased by a tourist are indeed cheap, but LIVING in NYC is a pay check to pay check ordeal.
So South Florida MAY see a temporary increase in exports to Cuba but the tourist industry will be dead.
Yes we ALL know that South Florida (specially Miami) doesn’t depend entirely of tourism as its main source of revenues.. BUT as Cuba progresses and an economically savvy government goes to work in providing VERY low taxes (or even NO TAXES) to industries, services, banking etc. Miami WILL stop being the gateway to Latin America from the USA and vice versa.
Hence the USA government is dragging their feet as MUCH as they can for a full transition into an open economy system. The Whitehouse and the hyphenated politicos can say what they wish – A free Cuba will just be the 7000 (that’s thousand) pound gorilla sitting 90 miles from the USA.
It is ironic but 47 years of total destruction gives Cuba a blank slate to begin the recovery process. As we have mentioned the economic model of Hong Kong is highly praised amongst those economists in Cuba who WILL be in charge of the Cuban economy. And if Hong Kong had the geographical position Cuba has, it would be an economic powerhouse and instead of looking at China as the next economic GIANT, the whole world will be reaching for a chunk of SOME business in Cuba. That little island is gonna give a LOT of countries a LOT of economic headaches.
Also politically Cuba will not have to deal with the issues that afflict MOST of Latin America CORRUPTION nor will they have to deal with the left wing liberal assholes that the USA MUST keep happy just to NOT have to deal with their idiocies and thusly pretty much run the foreign policies in the USA.
Cuba VERY easily can just break relations with ANY Muslim country in the world, hence protecting itself from ANY terrorist infiltration. NICE PLACE TO BE and to invest your bucks!
No Mosques training suicide bombers and no visas to ANYONE who has ever used a camel as a means of transportation!
Oil you say? Cuba will need the Oil from those countries? Well again 47 years of absolute devastation means there are NO legacy oil guzzling industries in Cuba so the new industries can very well depend exclusive in alternate ways of power because they will be BRAND NEW STATE OF THE ART without any concern for maintaining an antiquated system already in place. NICE place to be!
Then you have Venezuela, will Chavez stop selling oil to a free Cuba? Yeah right!
All around a FREE Cuba is a win win proposition for ANY investor, entrepreneur or industry
If you were Jeb Bush, or the president of Mexico, how would you feel about THAT?
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