Friday, September 29, 2006

Spinning wheels....

All the wheels are spinning in Havana in a chaos that I haven't seen in a while.
Text messages, buzzwords, codes, and cyphers have all being loaded with several rumors. The latest is that raul caligula kasstro's own "loving wife" has kicked the bucket, I was reluctant to write about this, since I haven't gotten any confirmation on it whatsoever, but it will serve me to illustrate a point.
Do you remember that famous phrase of coined in the sixties "do not trust anybody over thirty"? Well, this famous "revolutionaries" find themselves way over thirty, and in a country where about sixty percent of the population was born after 1959, c'est a dire, they are basically mistrusted by everyone. If that were all, one would say so what, for what a dictator cares.... but they find themselves facing a worse challenge: they became irrelevant in the space of a few weeks.
Irrelevants, and lucky at the same time: the U.S. was so busy with Iraq, Afghanistan, and the volatile Middle Eastern situation that didn't send an expeditionary force down to Cuba to put an end to their charade. On the other hand, there's a lot to be lost if Cuba becomes free out of a sudden: the U.S. cannot afford to have an unstable situation down in Cuba, and for sad that it is, things are bad in Cuba, horrible I would say, but the situation is stable. Timing has been bad for the people of Cuba, not for the first time in their history.
What if Vilma is really leaving the valley of tears (theme park by kasstro and co.) that is today's Cuba? Nothing. It doesn't mean a thing. She is/was such a minor player that her presence or absence doesn't have the slightest weight in Cuban politics or in shaping a future society in Cuba.
If we want to look at women in Cuba we have the best pool of corageous women in the world to pick one from, the Ladies in White. Do I think that one of them will become a symbol? I have no idea, to be totally honest with you.
What's happening in Cuba? Is there any change operating in the island now?
What's happening is a succession of power, fidel to raul, and a radical coup, ramiro against raul, in order to maintain a status quo that will keep the island as a captive cash cow for the benefit of some corrupt officials who have benefitted a lot from the candonga.
I will have to explain that word. During the eighties, at the onset of the Angolan War, Cuban officers in Angola were the biggest operators that ever existed in the thriving black market that reached from Angola to Johannesburg, passing -and stopping- by Windhoek. They traded in comodities as basic as yucca and salt, and as sophisticated as ivory, diamonds, and gold. The biggest fortunes ever in hands of Cuban nationals were forged in the Angolan War, and immediately after the war we had the famous Case Ochoa, where four officers were taken to the shooting squad.
They were accused of being narco traffickers, but we all know that their sin was to try to get rid of the kasstros in one way or another. Let's mention en passant that all of their activities were of the knowledge of the kasstros, and they were aprehended the minute they doubted about the kasstros' abilities to run the country.
So candonga is the military slang in Cuba for black market.
And many in the higher echelons of the armed forces have benefited to it.
Do you think that they are going to be happy to lose all they have hoarded?
I don't think so.
In fact, many of them are buying a life saver policy by participating in smugling operations taking people out of Cuba, and inundating the black market with stolen goods. Some of them giving preferential treatment to people in exchange of cash and sex, which make them future recipients of harsh punishment.
Those black marketers and owners of private armies (their military units are in fact held as private enterprises) are also the "businessmen" of raul. Needless to say that raul has become an uncomfortable presence for them, so I won't bet on his longevity.
And these are the speening wheels....

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